Posts tagged Betfair Trading
It’s good to have a Betfair bot for betting. They have many smart functions that make your trading easier and faster. What they don’t normally have are betting strategies. Of course, they do allow you to run betting strategies and automate them, but it’s up to you to choose a strategy and all the betting parameters.
So, you paid for a Betfair bot, what next? It’s time to find a good betting strategy. Here we will not cover different trading strategies, when you place back and lay bets on the same horse to make a trade. We will look at key points in staking strategies when all your bets are same type (back or lay) and you aim to close the day with positive profit, having several horses to bet.
First important thing to understand is that betting strategies do not guarantee constant and reliable profit. It’s a myth that you can find a betting cash machine and live on winnings. Their winning runs are limited and followed by losing runs. Good betting strategies just make winning runs longer.
Most popular betting strategies explained
Progressive or one bet recovery strategies
This kind of betting strategies is simple – you try to recover all your previous loss in next bet. If you run into a series of losing bets, loss grows dramatically and might bust your bank very soon, especially if bets are placed at short odds (e.g. favourites). This strategy might give you daily profit for many days, even months, but in the end it’s almost guaranteed that you will lose the whole bank and previous winnings in one very unlucky day. If you choose this strategy you agree to take the risk. You must not be greedy and quit the strategy when you make some profit, say, 15-20% of bank.
Level stake strategies
These betting strategies are much safer. Because you don’t try to recover losses and always bet only 1 pt (i.e. 1/100 of your bank). It is very important to have strong selections for level stakes, in other words it is not recommended just to bet say favourite in every race, instead you should choose each horse individually. Of course, it’s hard when you are beginner, so your best bet is to follow a tipster.
Betting strategies for Betfair bots
Here we will list several betting strategies that can be used with almost every Betfair bot, for example 5starbot. Please be aware that we don’t promote any of the strategies listed below or say that one of them is guaranteed to make you money. It just can be a starting point for a novice before you set up your mind to go with something else.
Level stakes on 1st and 2nd favourites
Place 1pt back bets on 1st and 2nd favourites in horse racing win markets. You have big chances that one of the two favourites wins. You might also want to set maximum price limit. Start with Max Price = 5.0 and adjust as you progress.
Wait 1st favourite to lose, then place bet
The idea is to wait for 1st favourite to lose several times in a row (say, 2 or 3) and then start placing your bets because it’s unlikely for 1st favourite to lose many times in a row. So after 2 or 3 loses that you skip, you have a better chance to win. This type of betting can be done with level stakes or with partial loss recovery.
Betting on horses that shorten
Watch the prices 15 to 30 minutes before the off when most of the market money come in and place a bet on the horse that price has shortened the most. Many Betfair bots have this function, so you actually don’t have to sit and watch the prices yourself.
We will explain more Betfair bot strategies in next articles. If you are looking for a good Betfair bot, try 5starbot. It is one of the most reliable and has many options to set up virtually any strategy that might come into your mind.
In this post I will be collecting all formulas that may be useful in Betfair trading.
Profit for BACK bet
Profit = Stake * (Odds – 1)
Profit for LAY bet
Profit = Stake
Loss for BACK bet
Loss = Stake
Loss for LAY bet
Loss = Stake * (Odds – 1)
Deadheat profit/loss for BACK bet
PL = (Stake / 2) * (Odds – 1) – (Stake / 2)
Deadheat profit/loss for LAY bet
PL = (Stake / 2) – (Stake / 2) * (Odds – 1)
How to calculate LAY stake from given liability
Stake = Liability / (Odds – 1)
How to calculate BACK stake from given target profit
Stake = Target Profit / (Odds – 1)
How to calculate BACK stake for equal greening up. Assuming that you have a lay bet at LayOdds and want to trade out at higher BackOdds to make a situation with equal profit for win and lose results.
LayWinPL = LayStake * (LayOdds – 1)
LayLoosePL = LayStake
BackStake = (LayWinPL + LayLoosePL) / BackOdds
How to calculate LAY stake for equal greening up. Assuming that you have a back bet at BackOdds and want to trade out at lower LayOdds to make a situation with equal profit for win and lose results.
BackWinPL = BackStake * (BackOdds – 1)
BackLoosePL = BackStake
LayStake = (BackWinPL + BackLoosePL) / LayOdds
How to find a chance % of selection to win from it’s odds
Chance = 100 / Odds
How to convert fractions to decimal odds
Decimal = A / B + 1
Today the online sports betting is most promising. No need to go out to place your wager. You can bet sitting at home, thanks to online exchange services like Betfair. Moreover you can trade, just like on a stoke market. Betfair allows you to make a “Back” bet to win and “Lay” bet to lose. This means that if your selection loses you actually make money. So placing, for example, two opposite bets (Back and Lay) on the same selection, but at different odds you are making guaranteed profit which is as big as the difference in odds between Back and Lay bets. This is very similar to normal stock markets, that’s why many traders in online sports betting are saying “price” instead “odds”. And sports events are usually called “markets”.
If you open Betfair market in your browser, you will see what I mean:
If it’s your first time at Betfair, you may need to click “Exchange” link on the top (next to “Live Video”, “Radio” and “Tote”). Also make sure you have ticked “Back & Lay” and “Market Depth” boxes. Without this your market will look like an ordinary race form.
So, on the above image you see three Back and three Lay boxes for each runner with available odds (prices) and amount of money available at this odds. As long as Betfair is betting exchange where people bet one against another, the amount that can be matched at BACK odds is limited by amount that other people are offering to trade at this odds. In our example if you would have placed a BACK bet of $200 at 4.8, $197 would have been matched and $3 have remained unmatched until someone would place a LAY bet at this odds.
From trading point of view you can think about BACK betting as “selling” and LAY as “buying”. So to make profit you should “buy” at low price and sell at high price (the order doesn’t matter really, you can first sell and then buy). Sports betting markets on Betfair are volatile, prices usually change up and down in matters of minutes. When a race goes in-play prices can dramatically change even in fractions of second. In Betfair trading it’s matter of good analysis and timely decision to be successful.
If you have backed $200 at 4.8 and then the price on Betfair went down to 4.0 you can trade out laying at 4.0. You might lay $200 at 4.0, then if the horse loses you will make (less Betfair commission):
$200 * (4.8 – 1) – $200 * (4.0 – 1) = $160
Betfair displays all odds in decimal format.
To calculate profit from a BACK bet the formula is:
profit = stake * (odds – 1)
Loss formula for LAY bet is the same:
loss = stake * (odds – 1)
Well, this is very basic of Betfair trading. Good luck, and happy trading!